Cov Kub Kub Tshiab hauv Kev Hloov Hluav Taws Xob Nruab Nrab thiab Siab Thoob Ntiaj Teb (2025-2026)

1. Kev Txhim Kho Cov Qauv Siv Hluav Taws Xob Zoo thiab Kev Hloov Pauv Ntsuab: Kev Hloov Kho Hluav Taws Xob Tshiab ua Lub Hauv Paus

Thoob ntiaj teb, cov kev cai rau kev siv hluav taws xob zoo ntawm cov khoom nruab nrab thiab Transformer Hluav Taws Xob SiabCov kev lag luam hluav taws xob tau nrawm dua, thiab qhov tsis muaj cov qauv kev siv hluav taws xob zoo ntawm sab kev tsim hluav taws xob tshiab tau dhau los ua qhov teeb meem tseem ceeb hauv xyoo tas los no. Thaum Lub Plaub Hlis 2024, Tuam Tshoj tau tshaj tawm cov qauv tshiab ntawm Cov Nqi Tsawg Kawg Nkaus ntawm Kev Siv Hluav Taws Xob Zoo thiab Cov Qib Kev Siv Hluav Taws Xob Zoo rau Cov Hloov Fais Fab (GB20052-2024), uas tau raug siv rau lub Ob Hlis 2025. Rau thawj zaug, tus qauv no suav nrog 6kV-66kV transformers rau kev tsim hluav taws xob tshiab (photovoltaic, cua zog, khaws cia hluav taws xob) rau hauv cov cai tswjfwm kev siv hluav taws xob zoo, uas suav nrog cov xwm txheej hluav taws xob tseem ceeb rau kev sib txuas hluav taws xob tshiab (piv txwv li, 35kV roj-immersed / qhuav-hom transformers suav rau ntau dua 95% ntawm cov ntawv thov hauv lub zog tshiab).

Lub hom phiaj tseem ceeb ntawm kev txhim kho tus qauv yog kom txo qhov kev poob ntawm kev xa hluav taws xob los ntawm lub zog tshiab. Piv txwv li, siv cov transformers uas siv roj 35kV los ua lub zog hloov pauv, qhov kev poob ntawm qib 3 kev siv hluav taws xob zoo dua raws li tus qauv tshiab tau txo qis 30% piv rau qib qub (GB6451-2015), thiab qib 1 kev siv hluav taws xob zoo dua tau txo qis ntxiv 10%; qhov kev poob ntawm 35kV hom transformers qhuav (Qib 3) tau txo qis 20% piv rau tus qauv kev lag luam (NB/T31062-2014). Raws li kev kwv yees, yog tias txhua lub transformers siv hluav taws xob tshiab hauv Suav teb tau txhim kho los ntawm qib S11 mus rau qib S20, cov pa roj carbon dioxide tuaj yeem txo qis 55 lab tons, sib npaug rau 2.8 npaug ntawm kev tsim hluav taws xob ntawm Gezhouba Hydropower Station hauv xyoo 2021.

Qhov kev siv tus qauv no tsis yog tsuas yog txhawb kev hloov pauv ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam transformer mus rau kev ua haujlwm siab thiab qis carbon tab sis kuj muab cov qauv siv hluav taws xob tseem ceeb rau kev sib txuas lus thoob ntiaj teb tshiab.

1. Smart Grid thiab AI Demand-Driven: Solid-State Transformers (SSTs) Ua Lub Hauv Paus Tom Ntej

Nrog rau kev tawg ntawm lub zog suav AI (piv txwv li, kev cob qhia ChatGPT cov qauv loj siv hluav taws xob ntau npaum li peb hnub li 3,000 Tesla lub tsheb tsav 320,000 kilometers) thiab kev ua kom nrawm ntawm kev tsim kho ntse grid, cov transformers ib txwm tsis tuaj yeem ua tau raws li qhov xav tau ntawm lub zog ceev thiab kev tswj hwm dynamic. Cov transformers khov kho (SSTs), nrog lawv cov txiaj ntsig ntawm qhov me me, kev ua haujlwm siab, thiab kev txhawb nqa rau kev ntws hluav taws xob bidirectional, tau dhau los ua qhov kev tsom mus rau kev tshawb fawb txog thev naus laus zis thiab kev saib xyuas kev lag luam.

Cov SSTs siv cov thev naus laus zis hloov pauv hluav taws xob zaus siab. Piv rau cov transformers kev lag luam ib txwm muaj, lawv txo qhov ntim los ntawm 50% -80% thiab qhov hnyav los ntawm 60% -80%, thiab tuaj yeem ua tiav kev tswj hwm hluav taws xob dynamic theem millisecond thiab cov zis hluav taws xob tas li, ua rau lawv tsim nyog rau cov xwm txheej xws li AI cov chaw khaws ntaub ntawv, kev sib txuas hluav taws xob tshiab, thiab cov chaw them hluav taws xob ceev ceev. Piv txwv li, NVIDIA daim ntawv dawb tshiab teev cov SSTs ua qhov kev daws teeb meem zoo tshaj plaws rau kev muab hluav taws xob nruab nrab ncaj qha hauv cov chaw khaws ntaub ntawv, thiab cov tuam txhab zoo li Jinpan Technology tau ua tiav kev tsim qauv SST thiab xa cov qauv mus rau NVIDIA.

Txawm hais tias SSTs tseem nyob rau theem kev txheeb xyuas qauv/me me (xav tias yuav raug muag rau ntawm qhov loj ntawm xyoo 2028 txog 2030), kev cia siab ntawm kev ua lag luam yog siab - Guangda Securities daim ntawv tshawb fawb qhia tias SSTs xav tias yuav dhau los ua qhov kev tawg ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm lub zog fais fab uas tsav los ntawm lub log ob ntawm "AI + lub zog tshiab," nrog rau qhov loj ntawm kev ua lag luam loj hlob ntawm 6 billion yuan hauv xyoo 2024 mus rau 26.4 billion yuan hauv xyoo 2027 (CAGR ntawm kwv yees li 64%).

1. Kev Tsis Txaus Khoom Siv Thoob Ntiaj Teb thiab Cov Txiaj Ntsig ntawm Suav: Kev Tswj Xyuas Ywj Pheej ntawm Tag Nrho Kev Lag Luam Ua Rau Kev Sib Tw Tseem Ceeb

Thoob ntiaj teb, cov transformers nruab nrab thiab siab voltage tab tom ntsib teeb meem loj heev: qhov sib txawv ntawm cov khoom siv rau cov transformers fais fab hauv Tebchaws Meskas tau nce 116% piv rau xyoo 2019, Tebchaws Europe cov kev txhim kho grid tab tom nce qeeb vim muaj kev tsis txaus transformers, thiab cov haujlwm hnub ci loj hauv Is Nrias teb tsis ua haujlwm thaum tos cov transformers. Nyob rau hauv qhov teeb meem no, Tuam Tshoj, nrog 60% ntawm lub peev xwm tsim khoom thoob ntiaj teb, tau dhau los ua tus neeg tau txais txiaj ntsig loj tshaj plaws.

Tuam Tshoj txoj kev zoo tshaj plaws hauv kev hloov pauv yog nyob rau hauv kev tswj hwm tag nrho ntawm kev lag luam:

Cov Khoom Siv Tseem Ceeb: Cov hlau silicon uas tsom mus rau (cov khoom siv "lub plawv" ntawm cov transformers) tsim tau txog 3.0325 lab tons (2024), tsib npaug ntawm Nyiv Pooj thiab yim npaug ntawm Tebchaws Meskas. Baosteel Group tau tsim cov kab tsim khoom hlau silicon nyias nyias tsuas yog 0.18mm hauv ntiaj teb, nrog kev ua tau zoo tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb;

Kev Siv Tshuab thiab Peev Xwm: Tuam Tshoj Cov Khoom Siv Hluav Taws Xob tau koom ua ke cov tuam txhab xws li XD, Baobian, thiab Shandong Electrical Engineering los tsim kom muaj ntau yam "UHV + lub zog tshiab". Cov tuam txhab ntiag tug xws li Xinjiang Tebian thiab Jiangsu Huapeng ua tus thawj coj hauv ntiaj teb hauv kev xa tawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tshiab;

Kev Ua Haujlwm Zoo: Lub voj voog xa khoom ntawm lub tshuab hluav taws xob hauv Suav teb (piv txwv li, 10 lub hlis rau cov tshuab hluav taws xob UHV loj) luv dua li ntawm Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas (ntau tshaj 18 lub hlis), thiab cov nqi qis dua (cov khoom lag luam ntawm tib qho kev qhia tshwj xeeb yog ib nrab ntawm cov nqi ntawm cov khoom European thiab Asmeskas).

Txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau lub Yim Hli 2025, Tuam Tshoj tus nqi xa tawm transformer tau txog 29.711 billion yuan, nce ntxiv 36.3% txhua xyoo, nrog rau kev lag luam European nce ntxiv 138%. Qee tus neeg siv khoom txaus siab them 20% kom ntseeg tau tias muaj kev xa khoom.

1. Kev Txhim Kho Tshiab thiab Kev Txhim Kho Kev Lag Luam: UHV thiab Lub Zog Cua Hauv Dej Hiav Txwv ua Cov Cheeb Tsam Tseem Ceeb

Tsis ntev los no, cov tuam txhab lag luam Suav tau ua tiav cov kev tshawb fawb tseem ceeb hauv UHV thiab lub zog cua hauv hiav txwv thiab lwm yam khoom siv hluav taws xob nruab nrab thiab siab, txhawb kev txhim kho kev lag luam:

UHV Transformers: Shenbian Company's ± 800kV UHV DC converter transformer siv rau Jinshang-Hubei UHV project txhim kho cov theem rwb thaiv tsev ntawm sab network los ntawm 5%; Xidian Xibian's 1000kV UHV generator transformer ua kom ntseeg tau tias kev ua haujlwm raws sijhawm ntawm lab-kilowatt thee-fired fais fab projects;

Cov Hloov Fais Fab Cua Offshore: Lub Tuam Txhab Shenbian tau tsim lub ntiaj teb thawj 20Hz offshore cua fais fab qis-zaus nacelle transformer, hloov kho rau cov kab sib txuas qis-zaus, txo qhov kev poob kis los ntawm 15% -20%, thiab siv rau Huaene Yuhuan Theem II offshore cua ua liaj ua teb;

Cov Hloov Pauv Ntse: Lub Tuam Txhab Khoom Siv Hluav Taws Xob Shandong tau tsim lub tshuab hloov pauv me me peb-kiv 220kV, uas txo kev siv hlau los ntawm kev ua kom zoo dua qub (piv txwv li, cov qauv txhawb nqa lub tank) thiab txhim kho kev sib dhos ua ke los ntawm 35%, nrog rau cov qib kev siv hluav taws xob zoo dua li cov qauv hauv tebchaws.

1. Kev Lag Luam Ib Ncigs thiab Kev Tsim Khoom Dua Tshiab: Txoj Kev Tshiab rau Kev Hloov Pauv Ntsuab

Nrog kev nce qib ntawm txoj kev npaj "ob chav carbon", kev tsim kho dua tshiab ntawm lub transformer tau dhau los ua qhov chaw tshiab hauv kev lag luam. TBEA (Hunan) Energy Construction Co., Ltd. siv "digital nerve" implantation (intelligent sensing chips) thiab "organ regeneration" (coil insulation renewal, insulating oil deep dialysis) los hloov cov transformers 220kV uas tsis siv lawm mus ua cov khoom siv uas siv hluav taws xob zoo dua li cov qauv hauv tebchaws Qib 1. Tus nqi tsuas yog 60% ntawm cov khoom tshiab, thiab ib chav tsev uas tau tsim dua tshiab tuaj yeem txuag tau 70% ntawm cov nqi yuav khoom thiab rov qab tau lub sijhawm tsim kho.

Tus qauv no tsis yog tsuas yog txo cov nqi ntawm kev txhim kho lub grid xwb tab sis kuj txo cov khoom pov tseg - raws li kev kwv yees, kev txo cov pa roj carbon los ntawm lub chaw tsim khoom dua tshiab yog sib npaug rau kev cog ntau txhiab daim av ntawm hav zoov, sib haum nrog kev coj ua ntawm "kev lag luam ncig."